Expected value (EV) calculator
Worked example
At a price of +120 the price implies 45.5%. If you estimate a 50% chance of winning, the expected value is 0.50 x 1.20 - 0.50 x 1 = +10.0% of the stake: over many bets at that estimate, you would expect to make about 10 cents per dollar staked. If your estimate is wrong, so is the number.
How it works
Expected value per 1 staked is your win chance times the profit on a win, minus your loss chance times the stake. The profit on a win is the decimal odds minus 1.
The result is only as good as the win chance you type in. ArchivePicks does not supply one and does not say what you should enter. The calculator also reports the Kelly fraction for the same inputs.
Frequently asked questions
What is expected value (EV) in betting?
It is the average amount you would expect to win or lose per unit staked if the same bet were repeated many times at the same price and the same true win chance.
How do I calculate EV from American odds?
Convert the price to decimal odds, subtract 1 to get the profit per unit staked, then compute win chance times that profit minus loss chance times 1.
Does positive EV mean the bet will win?
No. A positive EV only means your estimate of the win chance is higher than the price implies. Any single bet can still lose, and the estimate itself can be wrong.
Where does the win chance come from?
You supply it. ArchivePicks shows hit rates and posted prices, but it does not give a win probability or a recommendation.
Related
- Kelly criterion calculator
- No-vig (fair odds) calculator
- Implied probability calculator
- All odds calculators
- Expected value in the Glossary
- Player Prop Lines Explained: Over, Under, Half-Points and Prices
For information only. ArchivePicks does not take bets and does not tell you which side to take.