Player prop research: hit rates for NFL, college football and NBA

ArchivePicks shows how often players have cleared the lines that sportsbooks and prediction markets post for them. Each row on the board pairs a posted line, such as 64.5 receiving yards, with the player's hit rate over their last 5 games, their last 10 games and the season.

Open any player to see a game-by-game chart that you can switch between the last 5, 10 and 15 games or the whole season, drag the line to test any number, and see how the player has done against the team they play next. The Game Lines view compares moneyline, spread and total prices across books.

• NFL: lines from Courtside, Underdog, Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig.
• College football: lines from Underdog.
• NBA: lines from Courtside, Underdog, Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig, with each opponent's defense ranking shown beside every prop.
• Fantasy: a free NFL trade calculator and player value board under PPR, half-PPR and standard scoring.

Statistics come from game logs loaded every night, and lines refresh every couple of minutes. Read the methodology to see exactly how hit rates are calculated. ArchivePicks does not take bets and does not tell you which side to take.

How to use ArchivePicks

Pick a sport, then read each row in three steps. First, look at the line and which book posts it. Second, compare the L5, L10 and season hit rates: when they disagree, open the player and check the game log for a role change or a one-game outlier. Third, check the matchup, using the opponent's defense rank and the player's head-to-head history, and remember that a hit rate describes the past and not the next game.

New to player props? Start with how to read a hit rate, then player prop lines explained. The calculators turn odds into probabilities and fair prices, and the methodology page explains every number on the board.

How ArchivePicks works

• Free: no sign-up or account is needed to use any of it.
• Data: statistics come from api-sports.io game logs loaded every night. Lines come from Courtside, Underdog, Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig (Underdog only for college football and CS2) and refresh every couple of minutes; a line older than 15 minutes is marked as possibly out of date.
• Hit rates: the share of a player's games that cleared the posted line, over the last 5, 10 or 15 games or the season. A game with no recorded stat is left out, never counted as a zero. See the methodology.
• Information only: no picks, projections or advice. Found a wrong number? Report it on Data Issues.

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