L5, L10 or Season: Which Hit-Rate Window Should You Trust?
Every row on the ArchivePicks board shows three hit rates: L5, L10 and Season. They measure the same thing over different stretches of games, and picking the right one depends on the question you are asking.
What each window measures
- L5 is the share of a player's last 5 games in which he cleared the line.
- L10 is the same over his last 10 games.
- Season covers the games played this season.
On a player's page you can also switch the chart to the last 15 games and drag the line to any number to see what the rate would have been there.
When each one helps
L5 for a recent change. If a player moved into a bigger role, came back from injury or changed teams, the last five games reflect the new situation, while longer windows still contain the old one. The cost is noise: with only five games, one outlier moves the rate by 20 percentage points.
L10 as the default summary. Ten games smooths out a single odd night while still being recent. It is a reasonable first look at a player's form against a given line.
Season for the baseline. The season rate shows how the player has done across the whole year so far. Late in the year it is the most stable of the three. Early in the year it is the least reliable, because it may rest on only a few games.
When they disagree
Differences between windows are information:
- L5 high, Season low: the player may have just started producing more, or he may have had a short hot streak. Check the chart for a role change.
- L5 low, Season high: a recent slump, a minor injury, or a tougher run of opponents.
- All three similar: consistent output, and the most trustworthy read of the three.
Early in a season
At the start of a year nobody has many games. ArchivePicks handles it in two ways. L5 and L10 can reach back over the season boundary into last season's games so the windows are not empty. The Season rate uses only this season's games, and if a player has not played yet this season the chart falls back to his most recent games and the board marks the cell with an asterisk. Treat early-season rates as light evidence either way, and read the "of N" next to each percentage. How to read a hit rate explains why.
A practical routine
- Look at L10 first for the overall picture.
- Check L5 against it to spot a recent change.
- Open the player's page and look at the individual games in the chart, not just the percentage.
- Remember that none of it is a prediction. The methodology page lists what hit rates do and do not account for, such as injuries, matchups and weather.